Fascinated by the wind system

I'm absolutely fascinated that the devs managed to program a system which discerns with scary accuracy where I want to go at any particular moment and then shifts the wind to impede my progress towards it.

If it were just my home base or my dead body, I could probably chalk it up to wind being tied to these high interest points on the map and directing the wind away from them. Perhaps while sailing along a coast the system could be paralleling it. But just as often the wind will present in such a way that my choices are, the shore, a rock strewn water hazard, or rowing my boat into the wind.

Even on occasion I've merely glanced at an empty expanse of map and vaguely wondered at exploring that space when the wind shifts violently around to squash any plans of going there until I could go back home to grab Modor's ability. It really goes a long way towards making the defeat of Modor rewarding. As well as getting solo players to make strategic decisions about what ability they want to keep on hand and encourages teams to have a designated boat driver in order to make any headway at sea.

If any of the devs can spare the time, I'd love to hear more about the inner workings of this system and how it can predict where a player wants to go and how it makes all these decisions to confound every journey made at sea.
2:13 am, April 15, 2022
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Falaris replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 15, 2022 @ 7:15:00 am PDT

Originally posted by GunsForBucks:
Originally posted by Falaris:
This is an exellent example of two psychological effects and possibly some ingenious programming.

The first effect is something called negativity bias. Basically, negative events become overrepresented in our consciousness.
*snip*
And then something called confirmation bias kicks in. .
So basically all you really need to do is change your attitude toward it.

If you act like it always blows in your favor then the bias will reinforce that. Pretty simple actually. Especially considering it really does just by chance ha ha.

Well, it's called negativity bias for a reason. It's not quite so self-reinforcing if it's positive events. But, that's how to deal with it, yes. Just recognize that it's a trick your mind plays on you and ignore it.

Admittedly, I've wondered if the game recognize the direction you go in and make sure you get a headwind. Sometimes it even follows when I turn. But, nah, that's gotta be coincidence.

Gotta be.
5:13 pm, April 15, 2022
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Bobucles replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 15, 2022 @ 7:34:25 am PDT

There's some truth to the bias. A bad wind drastically slows down travel, therefore the trip takes longer, therefore there is more experience dealing with bad winds than good winds.

Of course it doesn't help when 8 out of 10 voyages go directly into head wind. Valheim's destination prediction algorithm is truly above par.
5:13 pm, April 15, 2022
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PakaNoHida replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 15, 2022 @ 8:25:57 am PDT

Ah, another bias thread about wind and how it is always anti-player. Didn't we have a roughly 10 page thread on this to only find out there is no wind / player connection?


Strap in, we are in for some rocky weather here.
5:13 pm, April 15, 2022
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VforVeranda replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 15, 2022 @ 8:39:05 am PDT

I'll be the nice guy and tell OP.. I feel you mate. Sometimes it really feel that. It get's better after Moder..

HOWEVER

I honestly don't think it's the case.
Good luck, may the wind at least always smell of pine.

Small factoid: If you sail around the rim, the wind *is* programmed to always blow off the disk, guiding you to doom - or if you know how to sail- a speedy rim run.
5:13 pm, April 15, 2022
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Falaris replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 15, 2022 @ 8:41:49 am PDT

I love sailing in this game, though. Nothing quite beats sailing up some wide river in the sunlight. My only real complain is it's too dark; I'd wish the days were longer.
5:13 pm, April 15, 2022
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VforVeranda replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 15, 2022 @ 8:49:02 am PDT

Originally posted by Falaris:
I love sailing in this game, though. Nothing quite beats sailing up some wide river in the sunlight. My only real complain is it's too dark; I'd wish the days were longer.

Ha ha. I like mine tight and wet, and me with the biggest boat. Yes it's prolly my favorite part of this game.
5:13 pm, April 15, 2022
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Qbertos replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 15, 2022 @ 8:49:05 am PDT

On a side note, I really love the waves in this game too. I think they made the waves a bit bigger a patch or 2 ago. Just love rocking out on the high seas, I mean Ocean.
5:13 pm, April 15, 2022
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Falaris replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 15, 2022 @ 6:08:50 am PDT

This is an exellent example of two psychological effects and possibly some ingenious programming.

The first effect is something called negativity bias. Basically, negative events become overrepresented in our consciousness. You can view that in several ways. In any game based on open dice rolls, you'll always see threads about the AI cheating. In fact, research has shown that if 60% of events are positive, and 40% negative, the player will feel it is perfectly even. (And 90% of all statistics is made up on the spot, or 'I heard it was like that once'. This might possibly be in that category... but I have actually heard it. ;) ). End result - most players will feel like the game cheats against them a bit, even if the devs would have no reason whatsoever to do that.

It's also why many forums seem overrun by haters.... no, wait, that's because they ARE.

So, normally we want more positive than negative. The game actually provides that; the wind rose gives positive effects for a pretty large part of the possible wind directions; way more so than actual viking ships.

But here's the kicker. It's pretty normal to make a conclusion that the game is out to get you if you feel like you're getting more headwind than you should. And then something called confirmation bias kicks in. Because every time you get a headwind from that point on, you think of it as confirming your theory... .almost regardless of how often it actually happens.

It's perfectly natural to form this theory - that the game predicts your movement and gives you headwinds constantly - and conclude that it's proven right, regardless of whether it's actually true.

Of course, the game does. That's the real kicker.
2:13 pm, April 15, 2022
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GunsForBucks replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 15, 2022 @ 6:31:27 am PDT

Originally posted by Falaris:
This is an exellent example of two psychological effects and possibly some ingenious programming.

The first effect is something called negativity bias. Basically, negative events become overrepresented in our consciousness. You can view that in several ways. In any game based on open dice rolls, you'll always see threads about the AI cheating. In fact, research has shown that if 60% of events are positive, and 40% negative, the player will feel it is perfectly even. (And 90% of all statistics is made up on the spot, or 'I heard it was like that once'. This might possibly be in that category... but I have actually heard it. ;) ). End result - most players will feel like the game cheats against them a bit, even if the devs would have no reason whatsoever to do that.

It's also why many forums seem overrun by haters.... no, wait, that's because they ARE.

So, normally we want more positive than negative. The game actually provides that; the wind rose gives positive effects for a pretty large part of the possible wind directions; way more so than actual viking ships.

But here's the kicker. It's pretty normal to make a conclusion that the game is out to get you if you feel like you're getting more headwind than you should. And then something called confirmation bias kicks in. Because every time you get a headwind from that point on, you think of it as confirming your theory... .almost regardless of how often it actually happens.

It's perfectly natural to form this theory - that the game predicts your movement and gives you headwinds constantly - and conclude that it's proven right, regardless of whether it's actually true.

Of course, the game does. That's the real kicker.
So basically all you really need to do is change your attitude toward it.

If you act like it always blows in your favor then the bias will reinforce that. Pretty simple actually. Especially considering it really does just by chance ha ha.
2:13 pm, April 15, 2022
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blankitosonic replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 15, 2022 @ 6:37:20 am PDT

Thats a real wow indeed...
and then we got a true lame AI in monsters ( and animals ) and sticking battle style where we cant aim our hits ( pretty annoying in slopes or elevations )
2:13 pm, April 15, 2022
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GunsForBucks replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 15, 2022 @ 4:12:15 am PDT

Works great for me. Actually it seems to blow in my favor more often than not. If I do end up paddling it isn't long before it shifts again to help.

I love the wind and it loves me!
11:13 am, April 15, 2022
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Qbertos replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 14, 2022 @ 7:43:50 pm PDT

Originally posted by jamesc70:
Originally posted by retsam1:
Hint: Go to a stream with fish. Move and watch what they do.

So wait, you are saying the devs have a stream of psychic fish that programmed the wind?

No, the psychic fish programmed the code you call reality...but they messed up on the game code a bit so the wind is off. :)

But yes, the wind can be very frustrating at times. Plus the RNG wind drops no loot. The landlubber life ain't too bad. Skal!
5:13 am, April 15, 2022
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JohnRando replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 14, 2022 @ 8:30:19 pm PDT

Randomness is fascinating.

Some call it luck.
5:13 am, April 15, 2022
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jamesc70 replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 14, 2022 @ 7:15:02 pm PDT

Originally posted by retsam1:
Hint: Go to a stream with fish. Move and watch what they do.

So wait, you are saying the devs have a stream of psychic fish that programmed the wind?
5:13 am, April 15, 2022
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retsam1 replied to Fascinated by the wind system April 14, 2022 @ 7:09:55 pm PDT

Hint: Go to a stream with fish. Move and watch what they do.
2:13 am, April 15, 2022
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