Nope, no mods, just plain vanilla game. As you can tell by my profile, I've been at it for around 800 hours, I've beaten Yagluth, and I'm on my fourth character.

I have the feeling it is now more common, and I can pretty much confirm that it was the next in-game evening when the raid happened, and that it is not the first time that has happened to me as well.

In this case I was working for several in-game days on our hunting cabin, with my wife doing the foraging and gathering, so I can absolutely guarantee I was at the cabin for several entire in-game days.