Originally posted by vinyblaster:

And I doubt that there is any sort of logic around character vulnerability. It's just RNG every 40min or so if you are around build pieces - except for the hunt.

Originally posted by Rhapsody:

In answer to this and your previous post, it's not really just your imagination, but there isn't some sort of algorithm to deduce when you are your most vulnerable either. All but one of the event types can only occur on what makes up a "player base" (three base objects within 40m or something). If you're spending a long time in your base, there'll be a higher chance for an event going off (also depends on which biome the base is in), and generally players who are spending longer time at their base will be naturally less battle-ready than you would be when exploring or going to a battle. You may have wrong food slotted, wrong gear, wrong Forsaken power, or perhaps you've just gotten back and things like potions and powers may still be on a cooldown. You may be in the middle of renovations that leave your home less defensible than it would normally be. So it's just coincidental, not imaginary.

I see. So no algorithm that anyone knows about at least. I will say that:

Originally posted by wahl35:

@morrowkain10587 In the world that I just referenced, I logged in and immediately had a raid occur. I heard the sounds of a lot of attacks and was confused until I noticed the forest raid message. WTH, that was fast. I burst out the door and started swinging my sword. Quite exhilarating actually. After I finished of the waves, I said to myself that was pretty damn cool. Talk about no warning!

I've had this experience too. And it contradicts the "40 mins in base" experience at least. So there are definitely triggers for raids at other times - unless the 40 minute timer is save-stated in the world.

This also begs the question of whether or not you can abuse the timer by predicting it and making sure you are outside of your base during the window every time. I have had long stretches - several in game days even - with no raids at all.

I also suspect that there is a higher chance for raids right after killing a boss. I had two troll raids and two swamp raids in just two or three in-game days after beating the Elder. It tapered off from there and now they are a lot rarer.