Yes it is a chance but its a calculated one - the rewards for getting things like turnips or obsidian early are huge.

I have been waiting out the nights in cleared troll caves or burial chambers where I can set up a fire for rested buff.

I do have 3 turnip seeds on me that I got from swamp edge scouting. I am gonna plant them at my first Meadows base for now.

I think I am gonna finish making an outpost in Black forest where I found several copper nodes close and smelt up enough bronze to max out what I have got currently. I have a dwarf tower on the shore I have taken over. It has a spawner within range that I dug out for skill training and wood/rock gathering.

After I get maxed equip I'll go back to Meadows base, make some fermenters, brew up poison resists, and explore the local swamp areas to see if any sunken crypts are available without taking to the seas.