Originally posted by Anarchist Jurisdictor:

Confidence:
90% it will not be done before January 1, 2023
60% it will not be done before January 1, 2024
20% it will not be done before January 1, 2025
10% it will not be done before January 1, 2026
2% it will never actually finish

I'd be happy to take that 'not being done before jan 1, 2024' bet. Right now it's empty speculation.

Confidence:
2% - it will never get finished. Asteroids can hit earth, another Corona strain could turn people to zombies, the sun could melt, etc... sure it's an Early Access title - it may not get finished.
80% - It will be released before January 1, 2024
18% - It will be released before January 1, 2025
I'm a lot less certain IGS would be able to release the game from EA within a year.