Originally posted by Cap'n Bells:

imho dont get in to gambling... the chance is NOT zero...there is a "Chance" i wont bore you with the maths .. But i have worked a few years behind the Gambling industry..... The chance isnt Zero... just like Roulette players ignoring the little green "Zero" when they bet red or black . they ignore it at their own risk. edit : oh and OP said 6 or more hours...

I think you missed his point :)
There is 1 check for raid every 45 minutes.
The time frame given is 6 hours.
So there can only be 8 checks for raid. That means 8 raids max, which makes the 15 raids statement impossible.